Iran ceasefire extends, oil drifts to high $80s, one Fed cut
Pakistan-brokered ceasefire formalizes into a framework deal. Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizes, Brent drifts to the $80s. The Fed delivers a single 25-basis-point cut in the second half. EPS revisions stabilize at +18% growth, the multiple holds elevated on the disinflation glide.
Oil pins above $100, Core PCE sticks at 3%+, no cuts
Iran ceasefire collapses or a fresh supply shock pins WTI above $100. Core PCE sticks at 3.0–3.5%. The Fed pauses cuts and prices in hike risk. Forward P/E compresses from 22× to 17×, while EPS gets cut 5–8%. Mega-cap concentration becomes the index's Achilles heel.
Hyperscaler 2026 capex confirmed above $660B, NDX leads
MSFT, GOOGL, META, and AMZN combined 2026 capex confirmed at ~$665B — a 75% year-over-year increase. NVDA Data Center revenue runs above $200B. Mag 7 EPS growth at 25–28%, NDX outperforms SPX by 10–18 points. Multiple expands further on AI productivity narrative.
The right read of April 2026 is not bullish or bearish but wide. Index-level prediction has rarely been less informative.
| Assumption | Baseline | Stagflation | AI Boom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | $78–88 | $100–125 sustained | $70–85 |
| Core PCE YE26 | 2.4–2.7% | 3.0–3.5% | 2.3–2.6% |
| Fed funds YE26 | 3.25–3.50% (1 cut) | 3.50–3.75% (no cuts) | 3.00–3.25% (2 cuts) |
| 10Y UST | 3.90–4.40% | 4.75–5.50% | 4.00–4.50% |
| 2026 EPS | $300–310 | $280–295 | $315–325 |
| Forward P/E | 24.5× | 17–18× | 23–24× |
| Iran / Hormuz | Truce extends | Re-closure shock | Truce extends |
| Hyperscaler capex | $580–620B | $540–580B (cuts) | $650–720B |
| Dollar (DXY) | 96–100 | 102–108 | 94–98 |